Nobody knows numbers like Max Maxwell, dean of the RGV sportswriters. He has followed sports since he was a 10-month-old child sitting on his father's lap in the autumn of 1951 when New York Giants' Bobby Thompson hit the shot heard 'round the world against the Brooklyn Dodgers.
Sports' foundation is based on stats. Every argument on the best team or the best player is substantiated by stats. Writers like Maxwell look at box scores and they could pen novels if they were so inclined. This presidential race is about one thing and one thing only--the electoral college numbers. Based on two senators and the number of representatives, each state has a certain number with a cumulative total of 538. To be president, the winner must collect 270 electoral votes.
Scott Steinbeck was reflecting on Michelle Obama's gripping speech at the end of the first night of the Democratic Party's convention. Like millions of Americans, he agrees with the ex-First Lady that defeating the democratically elected dictator Trump is a life-and-dead manner.
He agreed with her statement that as bad as the country's condition is presently with COVID-19, the economic downturn and civil unrest, it could become worse if the incumbent triumphs. Even though Hillary Clinton gained three million more votes than Trump in 2016, Steinbeck that the popular vote was meaningless. It was only the electoral college that mattered, but he didn't have a grasp for these figures when Maxwell entered The McHale Report's office located on Washington Street in a dying downtown reeling from the effects of the pandemic.
"If anyone knows, you're the man."
"What are you talking about, Scott."
"What is the bottom line with the electoral college in the presidential race?"
Maxwell took a seat. He lit a cigarette. Nobody paid attention to the NO SMOKING sign. Steinbeck, who didn't smoke or drink, was grateful that the sports scribe hadn't pulled out a joint. All his underlings seemed addicted to marijuana. They claimed weed improved their prose. As long as they produced the quantity wrapped in quality, he wasn't going to argue. There job was to submit stories and then return to their private lives. Steinbeck was a Christian, but he was only interested on his staying on the straight and narrow to heaven. He could give a damn about the path his colleagues chose. A hacking Maxwell explained the electoral college basics, which Steinbeck comprehended.
"In order to put 2020 into perspective, we need to review 2016. Trump won, 304 to 227. He actually won, 306 to 232, but there were seven electors who voted for other individuals, one of them giving his vote to an indigenous person named Faith Spotted Eagle. The electors are 538 persons who can vote for whomever they want in our alleged winner-take-all state-by-state competition. The Supreme Court recently ruled that these electors had to remain faithful to their state's choice, but we're not going down that rabbit hole. If the truth be told, we have no right lecturing other countries about democracy when we have this intermediary system that renders the popular vote meaningless."
"So basically Trump kicked the shit out of Clinton if we only consider the electoral votes?"
"The arrogant asshole would certainly say that, but he squeaked through in several northern states that allowed him to prevail. I believe his victory was more a rejection of the Clintons than it was an embracing of Trump. He finds himself in a totally different showdown against Biden. The right will try its best to paint Biden as a communist, but Biden is a moderate Democrat and the president's propaganda will fail because, ultimately, this is a referendum on Trump with Biden a comfortable option for those independents and traditional Republicans who find Trump repulsive as both a president and a person. He has an onerous task putting a positive spin on so many negatives."
"But it's all about the numbers, right? Explain the numbers to me."
"Clinton collected 232 electoral votes. She fell short by 38 votes. There is no reason to believe that at the end of the night these numbers won't be in Biden's column. Both camps are flinging bullshit that the Republicans can capture New York and the Democrats can return the favor in Texas, but this is the cheap talk from the peanut gallery meant to distract and nothing more. After the mid-term elections in which the Democrats flipped 41 seats in the House and now own a solid majority having reduced the Republican minority to little more than hecklers, it is obvious that the party's base has expanded while Trump's base has shrunk. And this was well before COVID, the economic meltdown and the riots in the streets. The 2018 was an overwhelming rejection of the jerk Trump in spite of the strong economy."
"How does all this break down in the final analysis?"
"This is my simplest computation. In my estimation there are six swing states that total 101 electoral votes. They are Florida with 29, Pennsylvania with 20, Michigan with 16, North Carolina with 15, Arizona with 11 and Wisconsin with 10. Trump prevailed all of these against Clinton. With the exception of North Carolina where he is only trailing by the slimmest of margins, Biden holds solid leads in these other battleground states. And he is also running very competitively in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia, states Trump captured four years ago.
"Are you predicting that Biden is going to give Trump a well-deserved thrashing?"
"I'm not predicting anything. I remember when Doc was the best high school soccer coach in South Texas during his decade's run in the 1980s and he never took any foe for granted. He was always confident he could beat anyone, but he never underestimated the opposition. And he was more than content to escape with a one-goal victory even if they opposition was clearly inferior to his squads. A "W" was his sole priority. There is no doubt that the numbers overwhelmingly favor Biden at the moment, but these are volatile and perilous times and the Democrats will be content with the bare 270 minimum although to overthrow this autocrat we need as many states as possible in the plus side because this tyrant is capable of any outrage. In a nip-and-tuck result, the electors could play a pivotal role and I can imagine a worst case scenario in which this SOB could eke out his reelection. But I don't want to go there now. We have to take as many states as possible in order to deprive him of an alternative solution."
"Do you think Biden's selection Kamala Harris helped or hurt him?"
"She is the prefect choice. He needed a dynamic black woman and she epitomizes energy. She was a district attorney in San Francisco, Attorney General in California as well as that state's U.S. Senator. She ran for president in the primary. There shouldn't be any skeletons in her closet because she has been vetted several times. She will bring a huge minority turnout which Clinton lacked. Suburban women will relate to her and as a liberal she finds favor with Senator's Bernie Sanders' leftist coalition. And she is a favorite of the Democratic base. As they say in politics, she checked all the boxes. She is articulate and charismatic. The mainstream press loves her because she is already a historical figure by being the first African-American woman on a major ticket. She is also a safe selection. California will replace her with a Democrat, which is key. The Republicans control the Senate, 53-47, but the majority has more than its share of vulnerabilities and can be flipped. We need to wipe the Republican Party off the face of the earth. There is no political place in the country for the racists, the rednecks, the religious right and the rich reactionaries. We need to build a new Alamo in Alabama or Mississippi or some other Jim Crow state, give them their arms as long as they stay inside the walls and then let the Mexican-Americans overrun these assholes with battalions of African-Americans and Anglo-Americans waiting in in the rear as reinforcements."
"I know you won't admit it, but I sense you are confident that Trump will fall?
"You're wrong. I'm only confident that we Democrats are going to fight as we have never done previously. I have no doubts that dying COVID patients will miraculously rise from their beds and in one last act of defiance against this despot, they will cast their votes for Biden. As Michelle Obama insinuated: Trump is an evil man. Not only can't he do the job, he can't even call himself a human being. He isn't a descendent of Adam. Eve gave birth to this fiend after she had fornicated with the serpent."
"Changing the subject, how's the wife?"
"I'm seeing a lot of her these days."
"How is it going?"
"Let me steal a quote from Trump when a reporter reminded him that a thousand Americans were dying each day: 'It is what it is.'"
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